Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 51.2% vs Sturm 55.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 73.2%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 58.9%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 62.3%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Cirelli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Cirelli
Sturm
Last 6: Cirelli 2-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Cirelli
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Cirelli
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (585)
56.1% (716)
-4.0%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
67.7% (31)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
51.1% (133)
-4.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Cirelli is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Cirelli shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Sturm
Home
52.4% (462)
55.6% (412)
Away
50.1% (369)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Cirelli
Sturm
P1
50.7%
59.6%
P2
49.6%
52.0%
P3
53.3%
55.5%
OT
61.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.5%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
51.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |