Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Zacha 54.4% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 83.5%
Defensive zone
Zacha 55.7%
Neutral zone
Zacha 64.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Cirelli
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Cirelli
Zacha
Last 9: Cirelli 6-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
0
Cirelli
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Cirelli
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
53.9% (787)
-3.0%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
63.2% (193)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
44.3% (88)
-0.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Zacha
Home
50.6% (494)
56.7% (538)
Away
47.6% (441)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Cirelli
Zacha
P1
52.3%
52.6%
P2
45.4%
54.8%
P3
49.5%
56.8%
OT
62.5%
59.1%
Final 5 min
47.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 07:47 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 02:40 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 02:42 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |