Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Zacha 52.8% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 74.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 56.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 58.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Cirelli
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Cirelli
Zacha
Last 8: Cirelli 5-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Cirelli
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
0
Cirelli
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
54.1% (534)
-4.2%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
56.0% (109)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
44.8% (96)
+3.9%
On even strength, Zacha has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Zacha
Home
46.7% (649)
53.4% (406)
Away
53.5% (643)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Cirelli
Zacha
P1
50.1%
56.8%
P2
51.1%
53.6%
P3
48.5%
49.2%
OT
64.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |