Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Zacha 51.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 52.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 53.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 53.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Cirelli
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cirelli
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Cirelli
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
53.3% (646)
-2.9%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
53.0% (100)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
38.9% (72)
-2.4%
On power play, Cirelli has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Zacha
Home
54.2% (395)
51.7% (410)
Away
45.0% (509)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Cirelli
Zacha
P1
50.8%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
48.9%
P3
46.6%
50.2%
OT
33.3%
35.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |