Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Thompson 43.7% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 75.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 64.8%
Neutral zone
Thompson 67.0%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Cirelli
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Cirelli
Thompson
Last 8: Cirelli 2-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
4
Cirelli
Thompson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Cirelli
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
41.9% (597)
+8.0%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
50.5% (95)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
25.0% (12)
+23.7%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cirelli is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Cirelli shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Thompson
Home
46.7% (649)
47.1% (367)
Away
53.5% (643)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Cirelli
Thompson
P1
50.1%
44.2%
P2
51.1%
41.6%
P3
48.5%
42.9%
OT
64.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |