Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Thompson 45.3% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 55.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 69.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 58.8%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Cirelli
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Cirelli
Thompson
Last 5: Cirelli 3-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Cirelli
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
44.9% (642)
+5.5%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
47.9% (94)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
33.3% (33)
+3.2%
On power play, Cirelli has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cirelli is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Cirelli shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Thompson
Home
54.2% (395)
46.0% (391)
Away
45.0% (509)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Cirelli
Thompson
P1
50.8%
48.1%
P2
50.0%
44.9%
P3
46.6%
41.2%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
53.4%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:24 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |