Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 64.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 88.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 74.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 5: Cirelli 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cirelli
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cirelli
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
58.1% (823)
-7.7%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
56.2% (265)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
62.9% (35)
-26.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
54.2% (395)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.0% (509)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
50.8%
51.6%
P2
50.0%
63.8%
P3
46.6%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
53.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |