Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 51.2% vs Hertl 54.5% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.4%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 75.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 56.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Cirelli
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Cirelli
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
5
3
Cirelli
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (585)
54.1% (1,117)
-2.0%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
59.8% (296)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
34.4% (32)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
52.4% (462)
54.3% (709)
Away
50.1% (369)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
50.7%
51.6%
P2
49.6%
53.6%
P3
53.3%
58.6%
OT
61.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
51.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:12 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 15:52 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 09:21 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |