Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 66.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 53.9%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 10: Cirelli 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
9
Cirelli
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Cirelli
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
11
9
Cirelli
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (5,684)
53.8% (8,268)
-4.0%
Power Play
56.9% (571)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,196)
46.3% (806)
-2.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,600).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
49.6% (3,763)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
49.9%
53.6%
P2
48.8%
54.1%
P3
49.2%
55.3%
OT
51.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:23 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |