Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Cirelli wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 50.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 50.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cirelli
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
51.6% (1,084)
-5.2%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
61.0% (246)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
44.1% (136)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
46.7% (478)
55.2% (696)
Away
46.4% (470)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
46.6%
55.4%
P2
48.6%
54.8%
P3
44.3%
48.9%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |