Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 78.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 58.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 5: Cirelli 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cirelli
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
54.1% (717)
-4.2%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
61.9% (210)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
58.1% (31)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
46.7% (649)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.5% (643)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
50.1%
57.1%
P2
51.1%
54.0%
P3
48.5%
56.6%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:23 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |