Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 50.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 50.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 6: Cirelli 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cirelli
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
57.0% (718)
-6.1%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
64.9% (188)
-21.5%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
44.2% (77)
-0.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
50.6% (494)
59.2% (463)
Away
47.6% (441)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
52.3%
56.3%
P2
45.4%
55.4%
P3
49.5%
60.5%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |