Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 47.3%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lundell wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 47.0% vs Nelson 47.5% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lundell 54.7%
Defensive zone
Lundell 71.8%
Neutral zone
Lundell 61.1%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Lundell
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Lundell
Nelson
Last 6: Lundell 1-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
4
Lundell
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lundell
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (491)
46.9% (915)
-2.1%
Power Play
60.0% (40)
57.4% (94)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (48)
25.0% (28)
+27.1%
On penalty kill, Lundell has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lundell is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Lundell shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Lundell
Nelson
Home
45.5% (319)
48.9% (521)
Away
47.7% (260)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Lundell
Nelson
P1
50.8%
45.9%
P2
46.5%
48.0%
P3
41.7%
48.0%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |