Scouting Report
Anton Lundell holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 50.7% vs Nelson 48.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 24-24 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Lundell 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Lundell
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
24
(48 meetings)
24
24
Lundell
Nelson
Last 10: Lundell 6-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
16
Lundell
Nelson
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
12
5
Lundell
Nelson
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
8
3
Lundell
Nelson
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,486)
47.9% (9,695)
+3.2%
Power Play
55.6% (358)
54.5% (1,132)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (504)
43.8% (783)
+1.0%
On even strength, Lundell has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lundell is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,891).
Lundell shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Lundell
Nelson
Home
50.7% (2,304)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
50.9% (2,044)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Lundell
Nelson
P1
52.0%
48.7%
P2
51.4%
48.5%
P3
49.0%
47.7%
OT
48.1%
45.6%
Final 5 min
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:31 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |