Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.1%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lundell wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 52.7% vs Nelson 51.9% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lundell 50.3%
Defensive zone
Lundell 53.3%
Neutral zone
Lundell 50.3%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Lundell
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lundell
Nelson
Last 6: Lundell 3-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Lundell
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (804)
51.3% (1,002)
+3.3%
Power Play
50.6% (81)
58.7% (126)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
51.9% (81)
-7.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lundell is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (701).
Lundell shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Lundell
Nelson
Home
51.2% (527)
52.5% (590)
Away
54.8% (496)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Lundell
Nelson
P1
53.7%
50.5%
P2
51.7%
54.4%
P3
54.1%
51.4%
OT
20.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |