Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Lundell wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 54.4% vs Tavares 58.7% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 66.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Lundell
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lundell
Tavares
Last 8: Lundell 5-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lundell
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
3
2
Lundell
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (768)
59.2% (1,035)
-4.9%
Power Play
65.6% (61)
60.0% (310)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (49)
42.9% (7)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Lundell has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lundell is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Lundell shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Lundell
Tavares
Home
57.3% (450)
57.5% (668)
Away
52.3% (428)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Lundell
Tavares
P1
54.3%
58.0%
P2
58.2%
60.1%
P3
52.0%
61.0%
OT
75.0%
27.8%
Final 5 min
60.6%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
54.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:05 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |