Scouting Report
Anze Kopitar holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kopitar wins 59.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kopitar 56.4% vs Sturm 52.5% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kopitar 55.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 82.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 64.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Kopitar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kopitar
Sturm
Last 8: Kopitar 3-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kopitar
2
1
Kopitar
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Kopitar
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kopitar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (1,070)
54.0% (480)
+3.6%
Power Play
60.6% (264)
28.6% (7)
+32.0%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (175)
50.0% (102)
-3.1%
On power play, Kopitar has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kopitar is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (916).
Kopitar shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Kopitar
Sturm
Home
57.2% (778)
54.0% (287)
Away
56.5% (731)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Kopitar
Sturm
P1
56.3%
53.5%
P2
57.1%
51.0%
P3
57.0%
55.1%
OT
59.5%
20.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kopitar
56.0%▲
52.5%
56.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:46 | Defensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:15 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 08:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |