Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kopitar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kopitar wins 58.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kopitar 56.8% vs Sturm 57.1% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kopitar 71.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 62.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Kopitar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Kopitar
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kopitar
1
0
Kopitar
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kopitar
2
1
Kopitar
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kopitar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (1,085)
62.1% (356)
-5.2%
Power Play
68.8% (256)
75.0% (4)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (196)
38.7% (62)
+5.2%
On power play, Sturm has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kopitar is 58.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Kopitar shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Kopitar
Sturm
Home
58.4% (774)
61.8% (191)
Away
56.0% (763)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Kopitar
Sturm
P1
59.4%
58.0%
P2
56.8%
57.9%
P3
55.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
54.9%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kopitar
56.0%▲
52.5%
57.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |