Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.8%). Look for Kopitar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kopitar wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kopitar 55.6% vs Sturm 55.2% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kopitar 69.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 57.3%
Result
Anze Kopitar favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Kopitar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Kopitar
Sturm
Last 7: Kopitar 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kopitar
3
1
Kopitar
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Kopitar
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Kopitar
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kopitar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (1,114)
56.1% (716)
+0.3%
Power Play
60.1% (288)
67.7% (31)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (206)
51.1% (133)
-3.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kopitar is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,025).
Kopitar shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Kopitar
Sturm
Home
56.3% (783)
55.6% (412)
Away
55.5% (825)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Kopitar
Sturm
P1
57.9%
59.6%
P2
54.5%
52.0%
P3
55.2%
55.5%
OT
57.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kopitar
56.0%▲
52.5%
55.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |