Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kopitar on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kopitar wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kopitar 54.8% vs Sturm 59.0% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kopitar 55.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 83.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.3%
Result
Anze Kopitar favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Kopitar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kopitar
Sturm
Last 5: Kopitar 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kopitar
2
1
Kopitar
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kopitar
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kopitar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (1,054)
60.6% (708)
-4.2%
Power Play
57.3% (293)
61.1% (18)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (213)
56.4% (101)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kopitar is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,024).
Kopitar shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Kopitar
Sturm
Home
56.1% (786)
61.6% (451)
Away
54.0% (774)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Kopitar
Sturm
P1
56.2%
55.9%
P2
55.4%
58.9%
P3
53.0%
64.6%
OT
70.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kopitar
56.0%▲
52.5%
55.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:06 | Neutral | Anze Kopitar |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |