Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.8% vs Matthews 58.8% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 69.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 86.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 71.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Lowry
Matthews
Last 9: Lowry 2-7 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
4
Lowry
Matthews
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Matthews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
3
Lowry
Matthews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (660)
59.8% (848)
-4.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
64.9% (37)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
56.3% (87)
-14.9%
On power play, Lowry has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
54.5% (402)
60.0% (520)
Away
54.1% (351)
59.3% (452)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
52.4%
60.2%
P2
56.3%
58.2%
P3
54.7%
60.4%
OT
44.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.5%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
54.0%▼
56.0%
54.3%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:23 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |