Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.3% vs Matthews 54.5% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 92.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 54.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 64.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
0
(8 meetings)
8
0
Lowry
Matthews
Last 8: Lowry 8-0 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Matthews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Matthews
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Matthews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (491)
55.1% (856)
+1.1%
Power Play
66.7% (18)
54.3% (46)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (140)
50.0% (18)
-6.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
57.8% (341)
57.0% (440)
Away
49.4% (308)
53.1% (480)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
53.2%
54.0%
P2
54.4%
55.1%
P3
53.0%
56.4%
OT
80.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
58.5%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.8%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 07:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 18:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |