Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Jenner 54.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 57.0%
Defensive zone
Jenner 69.8%
Neutral zone
Jenner 53.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Matthews
Jenner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Jenner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Jenner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
0
1
Matthews
Jenner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Jenner
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
54.2% (999)
-1.5%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
60.0% (240)
-25.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
49.7% (147)
+25.3%
On power play, Jenner has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jenner shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Matthews
Jenner
Home
54.8% (515)
56.7% (693)
Away
50.2% (534)
52.7% (693)
By Period
Matthews
Jenner
P1
54.4%
57.1%
P2
50.4%
54.1%
P3
51.8%
53.0%
OT
75.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 01:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |