Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.3%). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jenner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Jenner 53.9% (-0.9%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.4%
Defensive zone
Jenner 55.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 54.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Matthews
Jenner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Jenner
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
54.5% (775)
-1.1%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
59.1% (198)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
46.4% (140)
-4.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jenner shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Jenner is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Matthews
Jenner
Home
56.5% (703)
52.9% (512)
Away
50.0% (616)
55.4% (601)
By Period
Matthews
Jenner
P1
52.1%
55.0%
P2
54.0%
54.5%
P3
54.0%
53.6%
OT
57.7%
52.6%
Final 5 min
54.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.3%