Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Tkachuk 50.1% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 51.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 96.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 77.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Matthews
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Tkachuk
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Tkachuk
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Tkachuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Tkachuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
45.4% (183)
+10.9%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
53.2% (250)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
100.0% (2)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Tkachuk is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tkachuk
Home
60.7% (572)
51.1% (233)
Away
52.4% (657)
49.0% (202)
By Period
Matthews
Tkachuk
P1
60.3%
42.9%
P2
55.6%
52.2%
P3
53.3%
53.7%
OT
45.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |