Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Tkachuk 56.0% (+1.2%)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 79.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Matthews
Tkachuk
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
56.8% (139)
+3.0%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
60.6% (94)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
100.0% (1)
-43.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tkachuk
Home
60.0% (520)
50.4% (121)
Away
59.3% (452)
67.3% (113)
By Period
Matthews
Tkachuk
P1
60.2%
57.1%
P2
58.2%
60.0%
P3
60.4%
58.3%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%