Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Tkachuk 48.6% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 73.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 84.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 68.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Matthews
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Matthews
Tkachuk
Last 5: Matthews 3-2 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
0
1
Matthews
Tkachuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Tkachuk
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Tkachuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
47.5% (421)
+5.2%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
50.3% (336)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
12.5% (8)
+62.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tkachuk
Home
54.8% (515)
49.9% (389)
Away
50.2% (534)
46.8% (376)
By Period
Matthews
Tkachuk
P1
54.4%
44.4%
P2
50.4%
51.8%
P3
51.8%
47.8%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 13:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |