Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Tkachuk 51.0% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 59.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 86.0%
14.0%
86.0%
Matthews
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Matthews
Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
2
Matthews
Tkachuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
51.0% (194)
+7.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
51.7% (151)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
50.0% (2)
+0.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tkachuk
Home
59.1% (528)
50.0% (140)
Away
55.1% (695)
52.2% (207)
By Period
Matthews
Tkachuk
P1
56.2%
54.3%
P2
58.1%
50.0%
P3
56.4%
49.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:37 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |