Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 52.6%). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Tkachuk 52.1% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 72.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 87.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 55.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Matthews
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Matthews
Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Tkachuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
47.9% (192)
+5.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.8% (187)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
0.0% (1)
+41.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tkachuk
Home
56.5% (703)
56.0% (175)
Away
50.0% (616)
49.8% (205)
By Period
Matthews
Tkachuk
P1
52.1%
55.0%
P2
54.0%
51.9%
P3
54.0%
47.3%
OT
57.7%
77.8%
Final 5 min
54.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |