Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Nelson 50.6% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Nelson
Last 8: Matthews 3-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
3
Matthews
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.7% (879)
+9.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
58.6% (162)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
43.4% (198)
+12.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
60.0% (520)
52.3% (621)
Away
59.3% (452)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
60.2%
48.4%
P2
58.2%
53.5%
P3
60.4%
50.3%
OT
70.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 05:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |