Auston Matthews vs Brock Nelson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 30 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Nelson 48.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 36-30 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
36
(66 meetings)
30
36
Matthews
Nelson
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
17
Matthews
Nelson
30 total
Defensive Zone
Even
9
9
Matthews
Nelson
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
10
Matthews
Nelson
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
47.9% (9,695)
+6.1%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
54.5% (1,132)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
43.8% (783)
+6.0%
On even strength, Matthews has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
56.3% (5,065)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
55.5%
48.7%
P2
53.3%
48.5%
P3
52.8%
47.7%
OT
56.6%
45.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 05:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |