Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Nelson 47.5% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Matthews
Nelson
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
6
Matthews
Nelson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Matthews
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
46.9% (915)
+5.8%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
57.4% (94)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
25.0% (28)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
54.8% (515)
48.9% (521)
Away
50.2% (534)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
54.4%
45.9%
P2
50.4%
48.0%
P3
51.8%
48.0%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2022 | OT | 00:32 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |