Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Nelson 49.4% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 86.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 80.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Matthews
Nelson
Last 5: Matthews 5-0 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
49.9% (840)
+6.4%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
52.8% (89)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
28.6% (35)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
60.7% (572)
49.8% (458)
Away
52.4% (657)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
60.3%
50.1%
P2
55.6%
45.4%
P3
53.3%
52.7%
OT
45.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 16:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |