Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Nelson 51.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 50.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 75.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 57.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Matthews
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
51.3% (1,002)
+7.0%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
58.7% (126)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
51.9% (81)
-1.2%
On even strength, Matthews has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
59.1% (528)
52.5% (590)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
56.2%
50.5%
P2
58.1%
54.4%
P3
56.4%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
55.5%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |