Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Nelson 45.8% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Matthews
Nelson
Last 7: Matthews 3-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
46.1% (735)
+7.3%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
34.5% (29)
+31.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
30.4% (23)
+11.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
56.5% (703)
48.7% (419)
Away
50.0% (616)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
52.1%
44.6%
P2
54.0%
47.3%
P3
54.0%
43.0%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |