Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Nelson 44.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 57.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Matthews
Nelson
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
3
Matthews
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Matthews
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
43.0% (688)
+3.2%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
54.8% (42)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
44.3% (61)
-30.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
48.4% (562)
41.9% (391)
Away
45.3% (570)
45.5% (400)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
51.3%
47.1%
P2
44.5%
43.0%
P3
44.6%
40.9%
OT
55.6%
63.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2017 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 2 | 06:57 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 11:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2017 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 2 | 05:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2017 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |