Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.9% vs Nelson 47.8% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Matthews
Nelson
Last 10: Matthews 2-8 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
3
Matthews
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
4
Matthews
Nelson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (892)
47.4% (1,020)
+5.0%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
51.5% (163)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
42.9% (63)
-5.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (606).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
54.3% (420)
51.0% (641)
Away
50.3% (491)
44.1% (605)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
54.2%
48.2%
P2
54.3%
48.1%
P3
47.8%
46.9%
OT
55.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.8%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 04:20 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 01:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 16:16 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 03:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 00:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |