Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 54.5% vs Nelson 51.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 77.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 68.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Matthews
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Matthews
Nelson
Last 7: Matthews 5-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Matthews
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (856)
50.7% (902)
+4.4%
Power Play
54.3% (46)
59.8% (169)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
48.3% (116)
+1.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Matthews shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nelson
Home
57.0% (440)
53.6% (603)
Away
53.1% (480)
49.9% (585)
By Period
Matthews
Nelson
P1
54.0%
55.4%
P2
55.1%
47.2%
P3
56.4%
52.6%
OT
42.9%
51.6%
Final 5 min
51.7%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 10:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |