Auston Matthews vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs McDavid 47.9% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 71.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 90.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 87.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.5%
85.5%
14.5%
Matthews
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Matthews
McDavid
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Matthews
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
McDavid
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
5
Matthews
McDavid
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.5% (650)
+12.3%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
48.6% (72)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
46.5% (43)
+9.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Matthews
McDavid
Home
60.0% (520)
50.2% (400)
Away
59.3% (452)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Matthews
McDavid
P1
60.2%
47.5%
P2
58.2%
48.6%
P3
60.4%
46.7%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:04 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |