Auston Matthews vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 51 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs McDavid 47.8% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 60-42 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 88.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 89.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Matthews
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
42
(102 meetings)
60
42
Matthews
McDavid
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
18
Matthews
McDavid
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
15
9
Matthews
McDavid
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
36
15
Matthews
McDavid
51 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
47.7% (8,358)
+6.3%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
52.0% (371)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
43.4% (279)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Matthews
McDavid
Home
56.3% (5,065)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Matthews
McDavid
P1
55.5%
46.5%
P2
53.3%
48.7%
P3
52.8%
48.3%
OT
56.6%
40.9%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:04 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |