Auston Matthews vs Connor McDavid
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs McDavid 47.9% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 81.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 72.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Matthews
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Matthews
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
47.7% (715)
+10.6%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
51.9% (52)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
22.2% (9)
+28.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Matthews
McDavid
Home
59.1% (528)
47.3% (387)
Away
55.1% (695)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Matthews
McDavid
P1
56.2%
47.6%
P2
58.1%
50.0%
P3
56.4%
45.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |