Auston Matthews vs Connor McDavid
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs McDavid 51.0% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 50.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 53.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Matthews
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Matthews
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.6% (803)
+1.8%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
50.0% (40)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
36.4% (22)
+5.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Matthews
McDavid
Home
56.5% (703)
51.8% (415)
Away
50.0% (616)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Matthews
McDavid
P1
52.1%
47.5%
P2
54.0%
51.6%
P3
54.0%
55.5%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 13:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |