Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 52.0%). Matthews wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Ryan 51.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 53.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 56.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Matthews
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Matthews
Ryan
Last 7: Matthews 4-3 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Ryan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Ryan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Matthews
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
54.3% (245)
-2.1%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
37.5% (8)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
41.5% (41)
+2.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Matthews is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Matthews shoots left. Ryan is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Matthews
Ryan
Home
53.5% (454)
50.9% (167)
Away
50.1% (413)
53.5% (127)
By Period
Matthews
Ryan
P1
54.8%
44.0%
P2
52.2%
61.7%
P3
48.1%
50.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 10:12 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |