Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Ryan 57.4% (-3.6%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 59.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 52.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Matthews
Ryan
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
61.4% (220)
-3.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
100.0% (1)
-44.3%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
51.7% (29)
-1.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +44.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Matthews
Ryan
Home
59.1% (528)
64.2% (137)
Away
55.1% (695)
55.8% (113)
By Period
Matthews
Ryan
P1
56.2%
58.9%
P2
58.1%
62.8%
P3
56.4%
59.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%