Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Ryan 55.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 72.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 63.5%
Neutral zone
Ryan 53.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Matthews
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
15
(26 meetings)
11
15
Matthews
Ryan
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
2
Matthews
Ryan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
9
Matthews
Ryan
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
4
Matthews
Ryan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
56.6% (4,102)
-2.6%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
53.2% (342)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
47.8% (649)
+2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Home / Away
Matthews
Ryan
Home
56.3% (5,065)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Matthews
Ryan
P1
55.5%
55.1%
P2
53.3%
54.7%
P3
52.8%
56.0%
OT
56.6%
58.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 10:12 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 4, 2019 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2019 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |