Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Larkin 52.1% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 82.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 76.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 80.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Matthews
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Matthews
Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.8% (903)
+4.5%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
56.0% (225)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
47.4% (76)
+2.6%
On even strength, Matthews has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
60.7% (572)
55.6% (662)
Away
52.4% (657)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
60.3%
49.9%
P2
55.6%
52.7%
P3
53.3%
53.0%
OT
45.0%
68.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:18 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 06:47 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 15:29 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |