Auston Matthews vs Dylan Larkin
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 55 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Larkin 52.7% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 74-62 in 136 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 59.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 58.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Matthews
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
74
-
62
(136 meetings)
74
62
Matthews
Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
24
14
Matthews
Larkin
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
17
26
Matthews
Larkin
43 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
33
22
Matthews
Larkin
55 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
51.7% (9,019)
+2.3%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
58.5% (2,125)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
50.2% (1,122)
-0.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
56.3% (5,065)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
55.5%
52.7%
P2
53.3%
53.1%
P3
52.8%
52.1%
OT
56.6%
58.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |