Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Larkin 54.1% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 66.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 54.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Matthews
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Matthews
Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Matthews
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
Larkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
53.6% (886)
-0.9%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
59.3% (317)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
48.7% (152)
+26.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
54.8% (515)
56.6% (700)
Away
50.2% (534)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
54.4%
55.4%
P2
50.4%
54.7%
P3
51.8%
52.7%
OT
75.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 07:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 04:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |