Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Larkin 54.2% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 52.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Matthews
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Matthews
Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
4
Matthews
Larkin
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.6% (1,117)
+5.7%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
60.7% (305)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
55.9% (177)
-5.2%
On even strength, Matthews has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
59.1% (528)
54.7% (783)
Away
55.1% (695)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
56.2%
55.9%
P2
58.1%
56.1%
P3
56.4%
51.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 15:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 18:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 03:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |