Auston Matthews vs Dylan Larkin

2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Matthews 53.2% vs Larkin 55.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor Larkin leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone Matthews 51.4%
Defensive zone Matthews 50.3%
Neutral zone Matthews 51.4%
Result Auston Matthews favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Matthews Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
11 - 14 (25 meetings)
11
14
Matthews Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Larkin

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
8
Matthews Larkin
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews Larkin
7 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
55.9% (943)
-2.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.4% (244)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
46.2% (106)
-4.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +8.4% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
56.5% (703)
56.0% (654)
Away
50.0% (616)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
52.1%
54.4%
P2
54.0%
55.9%
P3
54.0%
55.2%
OT
57.7%
64.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
53.8%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%
64.0%
53.4%
Larkin
54.0%
49.5%
55.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Apr 13, 2024 3 18:09 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Apr 13, 2024 3 13:23 Offensive Auston Matthews
Apr 13, 2024 3 09:56 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Apr 13, 2024 3 04:50 Offensive Auston Matthews
Apr 13, 2024 2 19:53 Defensive Auston Matthews
Apr 13, 2024 1 13:39 Neutral Auston Matthews
Apr 13, 2024 1 10:56 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 14, 2024 3 16:10 Offensive Auston Matthews
Jan 14, 2024 3 16:03 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 14, 2024 3 15:53 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 14, 2024 3 15:46 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 14, 2024 3 10:51 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 14, 2024 3 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Jan 14, 2024 2 00:09 Neutral Auston Matthews
Jan 14, 2024 2 00:00 Neutral Auston Matthews
Jan 14, 2024 1 17:58 Neutral Auston Matthews
Jan 14, 2024 1 14:28 Defensive Auston Matthews
Jan 14, 2024 1 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Nov 17, 2023 3 07:36 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Nov 17, 2023 3 03:50 Neutral Dylan Larkin