Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Larkin 55.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 51.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 50.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Matthews
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
14
(25 meetings)
11
14
Matthews
Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
8
Matthews
Larkin
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
Larkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
55.9% (943)
-2.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.4% (244)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
46.2% (106)
-4.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
56.5% (703)
56.0% (654)
Away
50.0% (616)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
52.1%
54.4%
P2
54.0%
55.9%
P3
54.0%
55.2%
OT
57.7%
64.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:39 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 17:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |